Increased Temperature and Discharge Influence Overwinter Growth and Survival of Juvenile Salmonids in a Hydropeaking River: Simulating Effects of Climate Change Using Individual-Based Modelling

Climate change causes warming of rivers and may increase discharge, particularly during winter. Downstream hydropower plants, fluctuating water temperature flow create dynamic overwintering conditions for juvenile salmonids. We used inSTREAM 7.2-SD to simulate the effects increased (+2 °C) discharge (+10%) on overwinter growth mortality one-summer- two-summer-old Atlantic salmon brown trout in a river with hydropeaking regime 2 × design replicated simulations. Water had major positive relationship both species year classes, whereas alone no general effect growth. For one-summer-old experiencing high regime, however, resulted reduced There were from survival rate fishes. On other hand, there significant interaction one-summer-olds, indicating that depended temperature. salmon, low it In contrast, trout, Different operation alternatives interact warming, affecting relative competitive abilities stream Ecological models predict different environmental conditions, such as regimes, offer insight into when situ experiments are not feasible.